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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to DEN 26, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-D.McDougle.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model