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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model