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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 90

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to PHI 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 44 for 2 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth -0.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 47, worth -3.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model