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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 6

Denver Broncos 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model