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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to DEN 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 84-I.McKenzie to PHI 43 for 44 yards (24-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP