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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 51 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 28-W.Smallwood right end to DEN 35 for -3 yards (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP