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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 87

Denver Broncos 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 51

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PHI 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 87, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 45, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model