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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 34

Denver Broncos 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model