4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 44 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 13-N.Agholor to DEN 4 for 35 yards (25-C.Harris). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.02 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model