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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

BAL
30.9%
MIN
69.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (BAL): -0.074 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BAL defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 18
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

BAL

Breshad Perriman WR Out Concussion
Matt Skura C Out Knee
Terrance West RB Out Calf
Maxx Williams TE Out Ankle
Tim Williams LB Out Thigh
Chris Matthews WR Doubtful Thigh
Carl Davis DT Questionable Thigh
Jaylen Hill CB Questionable Thigh
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Mouth
Brandon Williams DT Questionable Foot
Anthony Levine S Questionable Thigh
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Shoulder
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Achilles
Mike Wallace WR Questionable Back
Benjamin Watson TE Questionable Knee
Lardarius Webb S Questionable Knee

MIN

Sam Bradford QB Out Knee
Stefon Diggs WR Out Groin
Nick Easton G Out Calf
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Hip
Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Hamstring
Riley Reiff T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 16
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:34 FG BAL (8:34) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 03:44 FG MIN (3:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. BAL 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 13:00 FG MIN (13:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. BAL 3 – MIN 6
  • Q2 10:01 FG BAL (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – MIN 6
  • Q2 00:39 FG MIN (:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. BAL 6 – MIN 9
  • Q3 10:57 FG MIN (10:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. BAL 6 – MIN 12
  • Q3 08:05 TD MIN (8:05) 25-L.Murray left guard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – MIN 18
  • Q3 03:02 FG BAL (3:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 9 – MIN 18
  • Q4 11:58 FG MIN (11:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. BAL 9 – MIN 21
  • Q4 03:07 FG MIN (3:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. BAL 9 – MIN 24
  • Q4 00:03 TD BAL (:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 10-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 15 – MIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-M.Sherels to BAL 36 for 46 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 78%

    (8:34) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 70%

    (3:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to MIN 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 72%

    (13:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 58%

    (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:25) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 87%

    (:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

    (10:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 19 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to MIN 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-M.Sherels ran ob at BAL 45 for 19 yards (37-J.Allen).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 80%

    (3:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:07) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to BAL 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 19 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (14:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 58 yards to MIN 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 48 for 18 yards (46-M.Cox).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (11:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:56) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to MIN 22, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (3:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.15 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 10-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.