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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 18 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to BAL 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.63 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP