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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model