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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(9:56) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to MIN 22, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model