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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 88

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(14:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 58 yards to MIN 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 48 for 18 yards (46-M.Cox).

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.20 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model