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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model