4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to MIN 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model