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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 18 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(11:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model