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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 39

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model