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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model