4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Monday 2017-10-09 · 20:30 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

MIN
52.6%
CHI
47.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than MIN
  • MIN defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
CHI 21
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIN

Rashod Hill T Out Knee
Sam Bradford QB Questionable Knee
Jayron Kearse S Questionable Groin

CHI

Nick Kwiatkoski LB Doubtful Chest
Willie Young LB Doubtful Tricep
Marcus Cooper CB Questionable Back
Hroniss Grasu C Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
CHI 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:38 SAF CHI (1:38) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (94-L.Floyd). MIN 0 – CHI 2
  • Q2 01:06 FG MIN (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 3 – CHI 2
  • Q3 08:24 TD MIN (8:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – CHI 2
  • Q3 05:33 TD CHI (5:33) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell pass short middle to 30-B.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – CHI 8
  • Q3 03:42 TD MIN (3:42) 21-J.McKinnon right end for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – CHI 9
  • Q4 12:33 TD CHI (12:33) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 86-Z.Miller for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – CHI 15
  • Q4 00:16 FG MIN (:16) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 20 – CHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 48%

    (10:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to MIN 12, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:24) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to MIN 46 for 14 yards (41-A.Harris; 50-E.Wilson).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%

    (7:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 27 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:31) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to CHI 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 40%

    (2:36) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIN-24-T.Brock, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%

    (13:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:10) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to CHI 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 22 for 7 yards (30-C.Ham).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:16) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to MIN 11, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 14 yards (93-S.Acho; 46-M.Burton).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 25, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 46 for 21 yards (53-J.Timu; 93-S.Acho).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 53%

    (5:33) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell pass short middle to 30-B.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:33) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to CHI 14, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for 1 yard (40-K.Brothers). CHI-29-T.Cohen was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:32) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to MIN 19, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 33 for 14 yards (30-B.Cunningham). PENALTY on MIN-24-T.Brock, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 37%

    (2:40) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to CHI 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 39-E.Jackson.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (:16) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.