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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 78

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to MIN 19, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 33 for 14 yards (30-B.Cunningham). PENALTY on MIN-24-T.Brock, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.21 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model