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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 43

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 27 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model