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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to CHI 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 39-E.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.44 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP