4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 38

Chicago Bears 2 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell pass short middle to 30-B.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model