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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 43

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIN-24-T.Brock, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.93 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model