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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 76

Chicago Bears 2 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 25, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 46 for 21 yards (53-J.Timu; 93-S.Acho).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model