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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to MIN 46 for 14 yards (41-A.Harris; 50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.42 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP