Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(9:33) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to CHI 14, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for 1 yard (40-K.Brothers). CHI-29-T.Cohen was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.70 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model