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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Thursday 2017-09-21 · 20:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

LA
30.4%
SF
69.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.293 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.166 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brian Hoyer (SF) -0.093 vs Jared Goff (LA) -0.263 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 18
–
SF 24
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LA

Malcolm Brown RB Questionable Hamstring
Kayvon Webster CB Questionable Shoulder
Gerald Everett TE Questionable Thigh

SF

Reuben Foster LB Out Ankle
Eric Reid S Out Knee
Eli Harold LB Questionable Foot
George Kittle TE Questionable Hip
Jaquiski Tartt S Questionable Neck
Jimmie Ward S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 41
–
SF 39

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 38 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:52 TD LA (14:52) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 08:26 TD SF (8:26) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer scrambles right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – SF 6
  • Q1 04:37 TD LA (4:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 5. 5-yds YAC LA 13 – SF 7
  • Q2 15:00 FG LA (15:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 17 – SF 7
  • Q2 09:42 FG SF (9:42) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. LA 17 – SF 10
  • Q2 03:51 FG SF (3:51) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. LA 17 – SF 13
  • Q2 00:55 TD LA (:55) 30-T.Gurley left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – SF 13
  • Q3 09:20 FG LA (9:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 27 – SF 13
  • Q3 05:44 TD SF (5:44) 28-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – SF 19
  • Q3 00:21 TD LA (:21) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-S.Watkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 33 – SF 20
  • Q4 12:57 TD SF (12:57) 76-G.Gilliam reported in as eligible. 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 88-G.Celek for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 34 – SF 26
  • Q4 08:47 TD LA (8:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 12-S.Watkins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 8. 8-yds YAC LA 40 – SF 26
  • Q4 05:12 TD SF (5:12) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 81-T.Taylor for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 41 – SF 32
  • Q4 02:17 TD SF (2:17) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 41 – SF 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 72%

    (15:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 37%

    (11:44) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to LA 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-86-K.Nelson at LA 12. 86-K.Nelson to LA 12 for no gain (11-T.Austin).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 16 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

    (9:42) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to SF 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor to SF 23 for 9 yards (24-B.Countess, 43-J.Johnson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 72%

    (3:51) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 98%

    (9:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (5:44) 28-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to LA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SF 36, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-V.Bolden to SF 36 for no gain (43-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (2:17) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 22%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at SF 32 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald).