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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 39 – Los Angeles Rams 41

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at SF 32 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.50 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -2.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP