4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to LA 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-86-K.Nelson at LA 12. 86-K.Nelson to LA 12 for no gain (11-T.Austin).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.48 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP