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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.26 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model