4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 24 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP