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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model