Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 17 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(8:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to SF 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor to SF 23 for 9 yards (24-B.Countess, 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model