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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model