Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 41 – San Francisco 49ers 26

(6:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SF 36, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-V.Bolden to SF 36 for no gain (43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.14 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model