4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 33 – Los Angeles Rams 41

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 1, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model