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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

DEN
36.9%
BUF
63.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Brendan Langley CB Out Knee
Paxton Lynch QB Out right Shoulder
Garett Bolles T Questionable Lower Leg
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Concussion

BUF

Marcell Dareus DT Out Ankle
Cordy Glenn T Out Ankle
Jerel Worthy DT Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 16
–
BUF 26

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:53 FG DEN (:53) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 11:45 TD BUF (11:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 18-A.Holmes for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 9 yds. into end zone, after deflecting off hands of Z.Jones at goal line. DEN 3 – BUF 6
  • Q2 10:33 TD DEN (10:33) (Shotgun) 28-J.Charles up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – BUF 7
  • Q2 02:56 FG BUF (2:56) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. DEN 10 – BUF 10
  • Q2 00:46 FG DEN (:46) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 13 – BUF 10
  • Q2 00:06 FG BUF (:06) 4-S.Hauschka 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. DEN 13 – BUF 13
  • Q3 07:49 FG DEN (7:49) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 16 – BUF 13
  • Q3 06:25 TD BUF (6:25) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 85-C.Clay for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line. DEN 16 – BUF 19
  • Q4 13:56 FG BUF (13:56) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. DEN 16 – BUF 23
  • Q4 03:18 FG BUF (3:18) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. DEN 16 – BUF 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to BUF 39, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 15-B.Tate to BUF 42 for 3 yards (34-W.Parks).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 39%

    (7:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to DEN 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (:53) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (6:45) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to DEN 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie. PENALTY on DEN-94-D.Peko, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 9.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to DEN 49, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at DEN 32 for 17 yards (9-R.Dixon).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 74%

    (2:56) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (:46) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to DEN 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 41 for 16 yards (14-J.Webb).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (7:49) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:33) (Punt formation) 33-D.Henderson right guard to DEN 32 for 1 yard (44-D.Lacey). Direct snap to D.Henderson.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 67%

    (13:56) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (3:18) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 46%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep left to 10-E.Sanders. Underthrown, receiver at BUF 20, crossing to middle.