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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to DEN 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie. PENALTY on DEN-94-D.Peko, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model