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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 10

Denver Broncos 13 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model