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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 69

Denver Broncos 16 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Punt formation) 33-D.Henderson right guard to DEN 32 for 1 yard (44-D.Lacey). Direct snap to D.Henderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model