Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 94

Denver Broncos 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

(5:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to DEN 49, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at DEN 32 for 17 yards (9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.01 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 94, worth -5.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model