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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model