Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(11:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.17 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model