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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 9

Buffalo Bills 23 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.32 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 9, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model