Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(13:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to BUF 39, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 15-B.Tate to BUF 42 for 3 yards (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model