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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 42

Denver Broncos 16 – Buffalo Bills 26

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep left to 10-E.Sanders. Underthrown, receiver at BUF 20, crossing to middle.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model