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BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 21:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

BAL
57.0%
JAX
43.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • JAX offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.085 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • BAL crossing 5 time zone(s)
  • BAL offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
JAX 20
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

BAL

Jaylen Hill CB Out Thigh
Dieugot Joseph T Out Not Injury Related
Brandon Williams DT Out Foot
Maxx Williams TE Out Ankle
Michael Campanaro WR Questionable Ankle
Anthony Levine S Questionable Chest
Chris Matthews WR Questionable Ankle
Za'Darius Smith LB Questionable Knee
Terrance West RB Questionable Calf

JAX

Lerentee McCray LB Out Knee
Jaelen Strong WR Out Hamstring
Chad Henne QB Questionable Illness
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Ankle
Cam Robinson T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 7
–
JAX 44

Prediction missed by 38 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:09 FG JAX (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. BAL 0 – JAX 3
  • Q1 03:39 TD JAX (3:39) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. On the play action pass Bortles finds Lewis for the touchdown BAL 0 – JAX 9
  • Q2 10:54 FG JAX (10:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. BAL 0 – JAX 13
  • Q2 05:00 TD JAX (5:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Hurns for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – JAX 19
  • Q2 00:42 FG JAX (:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. BAL 0 – JAX 23
  • Q3 09:49 TD JAX (9:49) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 89-M.Lewis for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – JAX 29
  • Q3 07:51 TD JAX (7:51) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – JAX 36
  • Q4 15:00 TD JAX (15:00) 69-T.Shatley reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – JAX 43
  • Q4 03:31 TD BAL (3:31) 15-R.Mallett pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – JAX 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 24 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-13-C.Matthews.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (7:38) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-88-V.Mayle, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at JAX 20.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to JAX 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 50%

    (14:21) 27-L.Fournette right end to BAL 33 for 6 yards (22-J.Smith). BAL-96-B.Urban was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 79%

    (10:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-88-V.Mayle.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:24) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to BAL 20, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-M.Lee to JAX 29 for 2 yards (36-C.Clark).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:54) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to BAL 5, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-M.Lee ran ob at JAX 15 for no gain.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (:23) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-C.Grant. 30-C.Grant right end pushed ob at BAL 7 for 58 yards (36-C.Clark). PENALTY on BAL-34-A.Collins, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at BAL 7.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 48%

    (9:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short right to 37-J.Allen to JAX 37 for 3 yards (50-T.Smith).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:40) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to BAL 24, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.