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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to BAL 5, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model